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curlyhart

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01/05/24

21:13

Post #: 73617698
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Originally posted by imback: ↑

Hi @Phaedrus, I should have been more clear. I believe MSB have raised funds for the CLBP trial (as stated in the 'use of funds' in the CR) twice. Each time, they have had to use the funds to fund operations instead. Last time because of 2nd CRL. The first time I think was close to after the CLBP results and when SurgCenter wanted in. They paid a premium for their early enthusiasm, but hopefully, like most of us, had an opportunity for a final dip in the low 30s.

This table shows expected revenues from early years of aGVHD and milestones for CLBP. It was done in Aug 22 before 2nd CRL, but gives an idea. It was based on ped. aGVHD approval in 1QCY23, so make appropriate adjustments for Q3/Q4CY24 approval now. CLBP was expected to start enrolment by end of CY22.

Don't have any details of their DCF model but they did mention the WACC will change considerably once approval received. Note SOI at the time was 734M.One other note which I found quite strong from analyst. This note applies more than ever but these guys have been burnt so much, they don't even cover with formal analyst notes any more, except through the Coppo Report.

I think the accumulation of ticking off FDA check boxes, building clinical and manufacturing data, moating with IP and waiting for FDA to get 'real' with real world clinical data, has resulted in a likely breakthrough moment for sustainable success. These moments are often mistakenly viewed as overnight successes by the late comers, not understanding the hundreds of good decisions (and plenty of bad) made by company employees in their areas of expertise to bring about sudden success. This type of exponential curve success is evidenced in many areas of life, let alone businesses.

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With Temcell royalties at 5.6M for the first 9 months it looks like we will end the year around 7.5 (unless there is seasonality?). That's a lot less than the estimated 13.7, and less than FY22 9.1. Is there a reason for this? Should US sales expectations be wound back a bit/lot?

MSB Price at posting: $1.10 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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