From a mate of mine - Look at the FMG Chart – it goes from 2 cents to $12 in less than 4 years as it goes from explorer to producer. Today $26++ and it got an all time high last year of $29.95. It has 3b shares on issue and shipped 192 million tonnes
So do some comparison valuation figures for us.
Let’s say we ship 10% of the FMG Production of 192mt being 19 million tonnes and assume same cost of production and same grades as FMG (I believe our grades are higher). That makes the value 10% of the LCY share price being $2.62. Say we end up owning 25% of the asset then that brings the value back to 52 cents. Then allow for 9b shares on issue and the value reduces further to 17 cents so to me that’s an absolute base line figure and that’s not allowing for higher FE grades. If you ship 38mt pa and we keep 29% ownership, then the valuation rises to 40 cents per share based on 9billion shares. At 8 billion shares the valuation is 44 cents.
The value based on 9 billion shares and 29% ownership is 1.1c per million tonnes of mine production. So now its wait for the PFS to see what the production numbers are initially planned at.
Quick look at Hawthorn at 15% ownership and assuming they end up with 2b shares then the value is 58c based on 19mt pa or $1.16 based on 38mtpa. Value to HAW looks to be just over 3c per share per 1mtpa of mine production. At 1b shares and 38mtpa and 19% ownership the valuation goes up to $2.93
Lets wait for them to say it’s a goer and give guidance on the planned production and we can then place a value from there however hopefully LCY are at a base valuation of 17 cents and beyond.
(20min delay)