It's not hard to come up with that $15 target.
The current market size is around US$4.5bill and growing.
Given Spontan's clear advantages, it is not difficult to think that it could reach at least a 2-3% market share reasonably quickly. It definitely might be able to do better.
3% of US$4.5bill is US$135mill. This is a very high margin product. Gross profit could exceed 90% or US$121.5mill
That's A$181mill. I'm allowing 15% of that GP ($27mill) is spent on overheads and R&D.
That would leave NPBT of A$154mill and NPAT of A$108mill if paying the full 30% tax rate.
I'd expect strong year on year growth and therefore a potential PE of 20. That would require a market cap of A$2.157bill and a sp of $13.
A 5% market share bumps my sp target to $21.70.
These are unrisked targets. They still need regulatory approval and then to deliver the market share so I'd expect a very volatile ride.
It's not hard to come up with that $15 target.The current market...
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Last
34.5¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $38.62M | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0 |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2811 | 35.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| 34.5¢ | 51 | 1 |
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| Last trade - 08.01am 31/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
| LTP (ASX) Chart |
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