Latest update;Citi 30/10/2009 3 Hold, High Risk $3.40...

Latest update;


Citi 30/10/2009 3 Hold, High Risk $3.40 10.7%
September quarter gold production beat the broker, while total cash costs were largely in-line with expectations. Otherwise, recent upgrades to Citi's AUD forecasts and minor changes to mine production/cost profiles sees 2009-2011 estimates fall by 9-22%.

However, Citi points out that if current gold/AUD levels remain in place, it would provide almost equal upside to the downgrade. The Hold call and price target are maintained.

JP Morgan 30/10/2009 1 Overweight $3.20 4.2%
Target $3.20 (was $3.60). Quarterly production was a little better than the broker had forecast and it notes the company remains on track to meet full year guidance.

Changes to its forex assumptions see the broker's price target come down but there is no change to its Overweight rating on the stock.

Credit Suisse 30/10/2009 3 Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform $3.00 - 2.3%
Target US$3.00 (was US$2.81). The company has lifted reserves by 7.5moz in the September quarter while production for the period was also solid in the broker's view.

Post the report it has trimmed its earnings estimates to account for changes to forex assumptions and some adjustments to its operational estimates and it sees the stock as being largely driven by the gold price and any news on its expansion in the shorter-term.

Rating downgraded to Neutral despite an increase in price target (see share price for why).

Deutsche Bank 30/10/2009 1 Buy $4.10 33.6%
Sept quarter output was 9% above Deutsche, so although it was lower than last quarter due to planned maintenance, it was still “good quarter” says the broker.

The broker thinks FY forecasts are on track and it otherwise has a positive view for the gold price outlook. So given Lihir's "sound operational performance", Deutsche sees the stock as attractive given it is trading at on an FY11 PER of 14x.

The Buy call is maintained and with FY09-10 EPS rising 3.1% and 1.1%, the price target rises 10c to $4.10.