a post from(Miracle_Boy)...first created by (DiamondDon)in...

a post from(Miracle_Boy)...first created by (DiamondDon)in response to questions that I asked....{So, let me ask two simple questions...
Taking the most 'positive' scenario, with almost 2million shares in issue....
1. If a total of 2billion barrels of OIP WAS PROVEN .....throughout all our projects, what could the sp go to, even considering all the profit taking on the way up?

2. What is the possibility of a share consolidation? }
(dickie3times)



Dickie,

Diamond Don doesn't get much wrong. Take a look at a snippet from one of his posts in July and remember any Takeover would fetch a premium to Share price (in some cases considerably higher):

FUTURE VALUATION

1) North Chapman Ranch
Relatively simple this one, the main objective being to move P3 reserves into P1/P2, thereby ending up with a valuation around $250m, so we?ll stick with that.

2) East Cotton Valley
Similarly, moving P3 into P1/P2 will give a valuation of some $30m, we?ll take that too.

3) Trinidad
A bit more complex here. Initial stage is to double production from the shallow wells, but ultimately take it to 4000bopd. Doubling production in 12 months gives a valuation of $76.6m at 8x earnings. 4kbopd in 24 months takes the valuation to $219m.
Then, we have the Herrera formations, and valuing this is a bit tricky seeing as we don?t know exactly how big or how many formations we could target yet. A single well targeting a 20m reserve could theoretically prove up 30% recoverable, with a value of $60m based on $10/bbl. We could see 2 of these wells in 12 months, 4-6 in 24 months.

So, short term we could be looking at $200m in 12 months or up to $580m in 24-36 months.

In addition, we could be looking at a couple of highly lucrative upper cretaceous drills within 12-24 months, purely guesswork at this stage, but let?s say 15m recoverable per well would give a value of $150m each.
Add two of these to your $580m and you are pushing $900m.

4) Georgia
A simple calc to change CoS to 100% based on the figures above would change the prospects to $782.4m and the leads to $206m, total $988.65m.
Taking a step back and calculating success in 2 of 3 Georgia Wells, and a low success rate on the leads gives $521m and $82.5m, total $604m

5) Puntland
Now, there will be no drills in Nugaal at this stage, but success in Dharoor will further derisk by way of proving the link to the Yemeni basins, especially given Nugaal?s exploration history.

In Dharoor, we are targeting the Shabeel and Shabeel North prospects, with 300m and 375m bbls recoverable respectively, so assuming success here gives a valuation of $675m net to Range. Add in prospective resources for the entire valley and you could be looking at $800m-1bn. Add in the derisking of Nugaal, and we are up around $1.5-2bn.

Now, if I redraw that table with the topmost valuations (ignoring items 6/7/8 meantime, and assuming an increased dilution figure of 2.2bn shares) we get the following:

1) NCR: $250m: 7.1p
2) ECV: $30m: 0.85p
3) TT: $900m: 25.5p
4) GEO: $988m: 28p
5) PNT: $2bn: 57p

Total now is 118.45p, but remember these figures are ?guesstimated? net asset values. We can be realistically optimistic of obtaining these values on NCR, ECV and even T&T, but for a balanced view, let?s say T&T, Georgia and Puntland have a 50% success rate. You then end up with figures of 12.75p, 14p, and 18.5p, giving a total of 77.2p. Not bad for the cautious approach, not quite a ?risked valuation?, but you get the picture I guess.

If all the success above in either approach combines with a potentially lucrative capital return scheme, and fantastic market sentiment as a result, we could be trading at a significant premium to NAV.

Also, I?m forecasting this based on 12-24 months. BUT, this could all happen within 6-12 months, and with significant upside still to come. I haven?t even considered a small West Africa offshore play, or a major Colombian onshore deal.