GXY galaxy resources limited

Assuming the export tax continues after 2020 which it won't as...

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    Assuming the export tax continues after 2020 which it won't as the budget would be in surplus in 2020 after the announced measures are put in place, adjusted calcs accordingly
    (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/03/arg...-ask-more-of-exporters-in-austerity-push.html)

    Column 1 Column 2
    0 SDV at 25ktpa @ US$14000/t LCE  
    1 EV/EBITDA 13
    2 EBITDA USD (m) 270*
    3 Export tax 8% (3 peso/dollar) 28
    4 Attributable to GXY (80%) 20% project equity partner 193.6
    5 EBITDA AUD (m) @ AUDUSD0.74 261.62
    6 Enterprise Value AUD (m) 3401.08
    7 Target Market Cap AUD (m) 3482.16
    8 Target Price per share attributable to SDV AUD 8.29


    Today's value of SDV continues to be AUD 3.23 per share

    **POSCO paid USD280m for 1.58Mt of LCE resource (Measured and Indicated), so the total M&I of 5.67Mt LCE before the sale of Northern tenements gives a total price of USD1005m
    Which is circa AUD3.23 per share today.

    *DFS 15 May 2018
    **See company announcements for POSCO transaction execution on 28th Aug 2018

    As usual don't take anything above as any form of investment advice, but one can see that even factoring a continuation of Argentinian export taxes beyond 2020 (SDV only producing after 2021) and a 20% project equity sell-down to JV partner, one can see that there is some nice growth over the next few years in the value of SDV.

    Cheers

    Tuna
 
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