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Just doing a fundamentals analysis for James Bay with a hydroxide converter running at 40Ktpa as AT suggested in the earnings call.
The numbers in the table later on comes from:
1. Using NMX's James Bay project as a proxy as NMX has the same grade at 1.40% Li2O (37 million tonnes) and GXY James Bay is also 1.40% Li2O but at a slightly larger 40.8 million tonnes.



2. NMX is using an spodumene cash cost of USD257/t and hydroxide cash cost of USD 2811/t, but it does not appear to have factored in any royalties or marketing costs, thus as a proxy, GXY JB is assumed to work on USD4811/t cost for hydroxide inclusive of royalties and marketing expenses.

3. The Capex is assumed to be USD 925 mio including contingencies (i.e 1.5x that of NMX's USD616 mio capital cost, as NMX is going to run at 213Ktpa spodumene vs. GXY JB at 320Ktpa to accomodate for a 40Ktpa hydroxide converter).

4. The NPV of NMX's project is USD1.7 Bn @ 8% discount and with JB being a 1.5x larger operation, the NPV for GXY JB increases to approx USD2.55Bn.
However NMX is going to run at 23Ktpa hydroxide and 11Ktpa carbonate so to be conservative we shall use 1.18x multiple on the NPV.

5. NPV for GXY JB becomes USD2.0Bn.

6. A 40% project partner for JB would then contribute USD800 mio in equity towards the build out. Together with left over cash from SDV project sale around USD171*mio it would be more than enough to complete JB spodumene operation and 40Ktpa hydroxide converter plus contingencies.

*20% of USD1.48 Bn SDV NPV giving USD 296mio where 125mio is directed to combine with proforma cash USD350mio as of today to make USD474mio SDV capex

	Column 1	Column 2
0	James Bay
1	Hydroxide tonnes	40,000
2	Price per tonne (USD) **	16,300
3	Cost per tonne incl royalties and marketing (USD)	4,811
4	EBITDA (USD)	459,560,000
5	Attributable to GXY (40% equity partner) 60%	275,736,000
6	AUDUSD	0.73
7	EBITDA (AUD)	377,720,548
8	Interest AUD (USD 0 debt)	-
9	Depreciation (AUD) with LOM 22.3 years ***	56,821,672
10	Taxes @ 30% (AUD)	96,269,663
11	NPAT (AUD)	224,629,213
12	EPS of James Bay project at 420mio shares	0.53
13	AUD Target price per share at forward PE 15x	8.02

**Hydroxide price long term forecast at USD16,300 per tonne *** 40.8mio tonnes total resource with annual run rate of 1.83 mio tonnes @ 75% recoveries achieves 320ktpa 6% spodumene as feedstock, giving LOM of 22.3 years

Thus, the target price for James Bay at 40Ktpa hydroxide production where GXY retains 60% controlling stake is at A$8.02 per share (SDV and MC left out of calculations)

As usual everything above are my own opinions only so please don't take anything I posted as any form of investment advice and DYOR and build your own models as well.

Enjoy the weekend

Tuna out