Valuations, page-58

It's going to be an interesting 2021, that's for sure. I was holding pre-result but I have loaded up at $3 and I am ready to increase my position further.

The NDA being approved is "nearly" guaranteed. Nothing in life is certain but I am so glad the results were so robust, on both endpoints. The FDA (on paper) has no real reason to cause an issue, added to the fact it's an OD with no other approved treatments makes me at ease. I had a feeling the FDA may have approved the NDA even if the results weren't so conclusive - but that would have been more a nervous wait (from now until late next year)

The ROW will be interesting. We raised capital prior to the results which I think was prudent. Yes knowing what we know now, they could have raised at a higher price but the risk was managed (for the company's future) at that time. We have sufficient capital to wait for the right ROW deal to land on our desk, presumably after a successful FDA NDA application. It may be prior but I figure that since we're not worried about cash flow we can negotiate from a real position of strength.

I imagine we will be partnering in all markets and NEU will remain a cash flow generating R&D company. The temptation to build a sales organisation is tempting but rarely gets executed well. I do wonder how different this would be given the drug's efficacy and the fact there are no other approved treatments. It's not like they have to sell a slightly better version of something that's already proven in the market.

As for a valuation, we are significantly de-risked but I presume we'll have another large re-rate leading up the NDA and if we happen to get any take over interest. At this stage, for me it's "how long is a piece of string" - all I know is that I wouldn't let go of my shares unless it's a life-changing amount($15-20+). I doubt a company will pay that much of a premium before the successful NDA but I could be wrong of course!