First, as Gunfeeling and accaeric pointed out that WPG had...

  1. 355 Posts.
    First, as Gunfeeling and accaeric pointed out that WPG had estimated their development cost for the qtr to be 50 million. Since, the proposed deal includes the expenditure spending from 1/7/11 up to 6/10/11. Therefore, assuming they are left with 14 millions + 346 millions which means they will end up with around 360 million cash.

    That's $1.38 cash backing.

    Assuming:
    WPG will pay distribution 259m ($1 per share)
    WPG will pay 82.8m tax ($0.32 per share franking credit)
    (346m-70m cost) time 30% tax rate equal 82.8 m taxes
    (82.8m/259m share) 32 cents per share franking credit
    WPG will have 6 cents per share or 15.5 million cash left after payout.

    Now, what's the port and coal asset worth?
    As 21/07/2011 Presentation to Australian Stockbrokers Association described on page 18 "Port Pirie: A Key Asset Every Much as Valuable as Iron ore. Well, this could be an overstatement. However, the port asset is surely worth top dollar. After the sale, the smaller WPG could easily become a takeover target because another resource company wants its port asset.

    WPG has 2 coal assets (50/50 JV)
    1. Penrhyn Coal Project: 352mt with 336mt in measured and indicated category. (The average total thickness of coals intersected in drilling to date is 21 meters.)

    2. Lochiel North : 270mt inferred

    The coal assets alone are worth nothing but the JV with Evergreen Energy has great potential. Evergreen Energy's technology is a proven technology. Page 35 of the presentation states evergreen built and operated a 750,000tpa production plant at Gillette Wyoming. Its Product was purchased by power stations.

    I would value WPG for 50m at current market condition after it paid tax and distribution which will translate to about 20c per share. If WPG keeps 15.5m cash after pay out, it will be about 26c per share.

    Conclusion, my valuation for WPG is
    $1 distribution + $0.32 franking credit +$0.26c for the remaining assets = $1.58

    Therefore, I will not likely selling WPG under $1.40. Besides, I bought most of my WPG shares in April. I'm happy to hold them after next April to half the massive capital gain tax while any positive developments on its coal assets will increase its share price further.
 
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.