value emerge?

If 2013 environment / operation remain the same, one can calculate that NPAT 13.5c / share, taking effect of dilution (Stoke's DRP taking up).

1) Environment. 2013 election boost; other papers shrinking and SWM's paper regional dominant; TV still robust;

2) Operation. SWM has been business as usual without a newsman for months. Other news coys run by newsmen perform as hoped for? SWM may just needs an outsider;

3) Div. SWM traditionally a high-payout coy. They do not have an apparent reason to cut the ratio;

4) Capital. Whether they are on brink of breach is everyone's guess. However, media industry's structural change has been long expected and banks had to know this for many years, and they choosed to lend;

5) Stoke's intention. (He must have lots of them) least possible is the one that tries to drive down SP while to retain value of shareholding. He is dealing mainly with institution and they are at least as smart as he is if not better. Hard to cheat and achieve;

Guess:
Market over-reacted. SP to stablise above 150c; (150c) div gain > 10% in '13 (with environment / operation improvement and stable pay-out ratio); No early new FY capital needs; Skoke will try to boost the SP before his any intention, if he can;

Ready to buy 145 ~ 150c.