value for money board, page-7

thanks for the info.
I'm a forward focused value orientated fusion investor. Big picture first and most important, with details acting like a breeze on a windsock. Valuation is like a gale, management quality is a breeze to a wind or at worst with maleficence a hurricane.

Big picture is BTA's pipeline and product is an acceptable margin of safety at current prices. It not the largest MoS possible and management may be a risk as most management are. Great risk/reward profile. Buying around cash and close to cash flow positive is good value. Risks exist especially in Biotech and should be considered. What other risk do people see with BTA?

I'll accept Peter Cook may not be a great CEO. I haven't made an informed opinion yet. It is unlikely that he is a great CEO, as probabilities show us only 20% of CEOs will get close to great and I am yet to see any evidence that he deserves a place in the top 20%. As you highlight it is possible to conclude with hindsight that the management team have not made all the best decisions. While a great manager is a definite benefit, you simply do not get the chance the buy biotech around cash flow positive around cash in the bank with a top notch management team at the helm. Getting the first two with many possible upside catalysts is acceptable to me. If you ever see a biotech with all four please let me know.

Within biotech investing this is as close to a value buy as I've seen for a long time. BTA has a good reward to risk profile, several possible catalysts, and is the best value lowest risk it has been in years. I'm off to investigate BTA's contracts with their other three partners. Who is funding LANI trial?

Has anyone compared BTA to other biotechs? I've been investing successfully in biotech for a decade now, buying undervalued biotech and selling overvalued isn't too difficult. You only have to be right 60% of the time and with good risk/reward you kill the competitors.

Is there another biotech that people here prefer? I see BTA as better value than AMGN, which I was pounding the table on from early this year at $50 down to $40, then recommended trimming at around $63 back in August. I was recommending PBT.AX below $0.28, it went to $0.70, which was lower than I expected on their good PBT2 results and now sits around $0.40 with a binary event of pharma deal likely to be announced with a quarter or two. They should get a good deal, but logic suggests that a big pharma partner will get a better deal. The risk is Prana management may be desperate for a deal and agree on worse terms than already priced in. You have to weigh those risks.

I am not buying PBT, I am buying BTA. I recently trimmed AMGN in the low mid sixties and will reduce further as it becomes fully priced.

We all have different styles. Working collectively and positively enables outperformance.

things to consider:
- what price will BTA fetch on one good quarter of Relenza results? What is the likelihood of at least one good quarter?
- what price will BTA fetch if we get two more poor Relenza quarters? A failure in one of their pipeline compounds?