I've sold out a large chunk of my MMA holdings recently -...

I've sold out a large chunk of my MMA holdings recently - although I wouldn't write off the stock just yet, I don't see any upside for quite some time.

Reasons for selling:
- Offshore support market is grossly oversupplied
- There are newbuilds that are struggling to find work - and there are still new vessels coming in to the market over the next 1-2 years.
- These vessels are not ideal for scrap steel as they are not large enough to make the scraping process feasible (unlike large tankers)
- Quite easy for established companies (DOF/Farstad etc.) to transfer vessels to different regions resulting in a highly competitive market
- Offshore rig count continues to fall (ie. less and less work for vessels)
- Large cut in cap ex and move away from costly projects (shale and offshore)
- Lower global demand for oil resulting in significant over supply
- Increased efficiency in shale oil and the quick payout rate makes it more attractive to oil companies
- EBITDA shock - at utilisation of 55% a $75-85m EBITDA is concerning

Reasons I'm wanting to buy back later:
- Increased dependence on natural gas/LNG
- Reduction in cap ex will result in low supply a few years out
- MMA is a good company - sure they got lucky with the North West Shelf boom but they've managed to compete with some big names and successfully diversified in to supply bases.
- Oil price at this level is unsustainable
- Cold stacking of vessels will gradually balance the offshore vessel market

This fall in SP is not manipulation - you really have to look at the offshore support industry to know why the price is so ridiculously low.

Good luck to all but please be aware of the risks you are faced with - happy trading!