I have just done some back of the fag packet calculations.
Forgetting about cash on hand or current debtors etc the following broadly applies unless I have forgotten something intrinsic (which is highly possible)
175,000,000 shares on issue
Debt of 262,000,000
Property value at June 08 financials $440(approx mil)
NTA circa 1.00 per unit
Scenario (Doomsday, firesales)
Cap Rate 10%
Drop in net property income of 20% (from 36.5mil odd)
Circa 295,000,000 property value
NTA $0.19 per unit
Scenario (Pretty bad)
Cap 10%
Drop in net property income of 10% (from 36.5mil odd)
Circa 329,000,000 property value
NTA $0.37 per unit
Average
10% Drop in value of properties from the last valuation date
Circa 400,000,000 property value
NTA $0.79 per unit
(this is my average/poor but vaguely realistic scenario)
Surely then this has to be a screaming buy..
Am I missing something.
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