value of charts on oilers, page-31

re: i agree with jocam.. Now acturtle, that is a very pertinent post.

How you structure your portfolio is critical, esp your portfolio balance. If you are going to have a portfolio of specs, you need some backbone as well.

At present I have 30% bonds, 10% safe shares, 55% specs, 5% cash.

However, two years ago, when the market was really tough, I had 40%, 20%, 40%, 0% and this proved to be a real winner in a tough market. I then reduced my bonds to 15% (and got a lecture from my mother) and went heavily into specs and this has shown massive returns.

You say you have 25% max in one stock. That is definitely betting big. The very max I get to is 20% and only if I am dead set sure and only 3 shares have meet that criteria in last 3 years (Resolute notes, Amity, PSA). Also, as these shares power ahead, I keep trimming my holdings to maintain the 20% level. This strategy has proven to be excellent in terms of returns. Also I have found AYO and PSA to be great trading stocks. I have had 56 different trades in AYO since 1996 for truly outstanding returns, but at the same time always maintained a long term parcel (although why I didn't sell at $1.40 was a bad trading mistake).

You do have to be very careful of the giant killer - Matrix really punched a hole in my figures - but I was fortified enough to survive it. Also that portfolio strength stopped me from getting spooked in my other stocks.

My aim is for 20-25% growth each year. Try compounding that - that is doubling every 4 yrs at 20%, that is outstanding. The trick is to have enough backbone to weather a bad year, and the bonds really help here, as does the income from these bonds.

And little trades can really keep the momentum going, like the Bounty trade above, or COE at 10 and out at 14.5, or my pet at present (esp on fundamentals) KRZ - in at 0.5, and as much as I like them, who could resist 60% at 0.8. Greed meant I held out with the balance at 0.9, what a goose I was.

I am constantly surprised by the 'day trading approach' to investing. I think it is seriously flawed, remember 79% of them are losing money. I tend to invest on a 6-18mth time frame and are looking for 25% in short term and 50% over 18 mths. If only half of my portfolio achieves this, then I am really on a winner.

One of my rules with spec stocks is that must have positive cashflow or be close to it. I absolutely hate seeing more and more equity being issued, it is the death knell for me. Look at how much better AYO did when all the 'placements' ceased.

I currently have:

AYO (holding long term, cashflow starting to come through and is financing all exploration and devpt)
COE (now trimmed down, but have longer term holding)
CUE (I think they can in some way finance Oyong)
PSA (simply fantastic cashflow and fundamentals)
KRZ (at oil prices now, magnificent fundamentals, but they need to deliver, also good trading opps occasionally too)

Bonds 30%, cash 5%, ord shares 10%.

Sorry - 100% fundamental analysis, no charts (but I do listen to the charting posters)

Good debate.

OMR