I wouldn't read into these figures too much as it's a fair guesstimate at present.
Besides PRR still had to get FDA approved to make the big $$.
Although you could say Dubai, Australia and NZ will be in the bag before then producing revenues.
According to Ord Minnett they are basing their estimates with CVac costing $75k for the patient.
"Pricing
Current treatment options are particularly expensive, ranging from $40k to $110k per cycle. Importantly, the expected price point of CVac will be similar to current autologous treatments, and reflect not only the considerable time and cost involved in bringing the treatment to market, but also the benefit to the broader health system by having fewer bed days for patients, which helps to free up resources.
In the United States, Dendreon?s Provenge was initially expected to sell for around US$65,000 per course, however following discussion with and approval from
regulators Dendreon is marketing Provenge for US$93,000 per course.
Our base case assumption is a selling price of US$75,000 per course, with a
relatively low fixed cost base and a variable cost of ~US$10,000 per course. The key components of the variable cost would be for laboratory time and transport costs. This number is also subject to change based on the eventual manufacturing method adopted. Consequently, we arrive at an operating margin that exceeds 80% by the time peak sales is reached in FY20, with fixed costs only representing 26% of total costs. "
http://www.primabiomed.com.au/investor/analyst_reports_pdf/071911_Ord_Minnett_Research_Report.pdf
Also, yesterday's announcement was quite significant to my knowledge with the MF-P. As previously (to my knowledge) if CVac became commercialized and was sold in North America they would have to pay licensing fee to the previous owner of the MF-P contained within CVac.
In short...PRR will keep more profits from sales if FDA approved.
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