value of lynas on hc, page-60

" LYC is going to pullback to 60-80c there it would represent fair value given the current political risk in Malaysia at the moment in my opinion .

Stockplaya.
If it wasnt for Bukit Merah,I would share your sentiment.

Going back to the 1990,s the Malaysian Gov/AELB has since built up 20 odd years experience dealing with the effects surrounding Rare Earth.

The protests back then were massive,justified,and influencial enough to close down the project.

The Gov. came under huge pressure that they were negligent in monitoring the Plant/waste..guilty as charged.

DESPITE THE ABOVE.

The Gov. knew what they were in for when they invited Lynas to invest.
NC fully knew the Bukit Merah story as well,especially the $300m clean up bill for Mitsi.

Did either party think that the locals would welcome this..:not rare earth again " with open arms....hardly.

Sovereign Risk.
So the Gov. allocates LYC a site,then changes it to Gebeng..politically..Najibs constituency..commercially ideal..An industrial mainly chemical estate.

Since then the gov. gave approval for phase 1..then approval for Phase 2 construction.

Now they have granted (but not issued)a TOL.)..even while Construction is not completed.

They never stopped LYC building at any stage...always get bemused when all the Malay papers always state that :it was put on ice" because of the IAEA etc...NO..work continued 24/7.

The $50m is not new..over a year ago it was stated as a 4% charge against income that the Fund would build up to (no final amount was mentioned)..this was likewise linked to decommissioning/clean up etc.
Its just been rewrapped..but something LYC had agreed upon way back.

The Gov. has also been fair to the Public..they protested..Gov. brought in the IAEA.

Since then the AELB has been on the front foot in all the media continually addressing the safety issues.

I really havent seen any Sovereign Risk as far as the Gov is concerned.

Sovereign risk will only be a reality if the LAMP is completed,and then the project is halted.

The protestors are both misinformed and illinformed,and thats more the headlines.

Every country has tree hugers,looney Greenies etc,Australia is no exception..but that doesnt make us a Sovereign risk.

Currently the ball is in LYC,s court..not the AELB or the Gov.they have done their bit.
Soon as LYC pay $10m which they have in the kitty ,submit the letters,its all systems go.

As for radioactive waste..whats hard to understand that "safe "actually means "Safe"..Rhodia/chinese/AELB/IAEA Scientists from 2 Malay branches have all come up with SAFE..thats overkill status ..but the village people say its not..yes stupid isnt it.

The protestors are up against a very experienced Gov. in rare earth.