Mal,Here is my paradigm take on:"Regarding MCO, well it's a...

Mal,


Here is my paradigm take on:

"Regarding MCO, well it's a waiting game, good ground, good people driving it, good grades to be found but can they produce the critical mass of ore without diluting it too much to become a high profit producer? Bloody well hope so but the definitive answer is still 6-12 months away from where I sit"


Over many years and losing money on Lihir Gold (remember Ballarat 100 plus million written off) & MIM, a few days after Xstrata took it over it becomes profitable. I give the following untested & not proven paradigm:


During the good years mine managers dilute more with the Halo. During the bad years mine managers mine more of the high grade stuff.


I cannot prove this assertion at all so it is just speculation that it is difficult to make money in long run from mining shares. I am into MCO as it seems as safe & transparent on this msgboard. So many others were/ appeared safe but just around corner disaster struck.


I can give many examples of my mistakes & everyone will laugh.


Looking with 20/20 hindsight I was an idiot buying those shares. I shall give you an example I use to own shares in an asbestos mining coy shares called woodsreef before asbestos was being ripped out of homes in an exercise similar to the reverse of mining. A real joke. So much for fundamentals.


One of my relatives when I was very young lost money in a whaling coy called Norfolk Island whaling and then whaling was banned. Extreme case no doubt but true. Very sad.



I did not know Lihir gold would never pay a dividend nor did I know there engineers would try to bulk mine a narrow reef structure. How smart was that. Honestly what were the engineers thinking?

Looking back with 20/20 hindsight the Management of Xstrata was smart & savy taking over MIM. The old Board of MIM was useless. Probably as good as me.


I lost 50k on MIM. Even when LGL jumped 33% with takeover by NCM I really made little money. How on earth could LGL not make money I don't know. How could LGL not pay dividends after all those years. Well I think I got one dividend chq from LGL. Only one I remember.


Strange circumstances has led me away from big cyanide dissolving large low grade ore bodies to MCO. However all of my others shares I own except IOH are making monies.

ADU, AZM & KAS are each in profit. But I lost 6K in a coy called Albidon where its share price went from $6.00 to 10cents. Reason was it was caught out with poor project mgmt & too much debt during GFC in a nickel mine in Zambia. Again MCO hopefully will not have those issues or risks.


You say you want to wait 6 months and see if mining is possible without dilution. My comment is that by then gold will be poured and costing figures should be available proving that effort applied is replicable. We shall wait and see.



My above narrative on the quote from your post is speculative and more about my world views and does not reflect mgmt of MCO. It reflects my personal experiences in TA & FA & DCF etc. By the way ALB was a DCF case & no doubt looked good on paper but could not survive GFC for even a short period. Too much debt & I lost all my monies I put into ALB. This could happen to a lot of small coys especially project mgmt in Africa. Really risky. Strangely ADU, AZM & KAS are all in Africa. I plan my exit every night. There are real risks in Africa.



I am into MCO because I am sick of all the big board MGMT theory stuff and only get let down. I feel those managers were probably poor managers. Xstrata got MIM at right time & I lost 50k from a supposedly blue chip share. It really hurts. Again I speculate :


During the good years mine managers dilute more with the Halo. During the bad years mine managers mine more of the high grade stuff.

And I will never know if it is true. But for MIM & LGL I suspect it was true. I cannot prove it.

wbddrss