value of mco, page-6

Thanks Robert,


I too understand the importance of what you are saying. Good tools those DCF models. Very helpful where resources inside giant companies allow precision & reliability. I should have seen your answer coming.

Even in those situations where management has policies on prescribed IRR, and determines costing methodologies giving seemingly right answers it is always a consensus or managements authority telling a peer group review it is right. As an ex public servant I am no fan of DCF, even where circumstances are ripe for its use. Politics is politics.

Now get to accountants real world and I am outside of MCO with only publicly available accounting type information of a mixture of cash & non cash costs with limited capacity for analysis. Then those small deficiencies around the real world where the tautology of an infinite number of solutions due to more variables than equations, comes into prominence. Take it as a tautology. This is by definition the real world & DCF nor any system of maths fits it perfectly.


I respect your opinion but as I quoted with AWE it dropped and still nobody can explain why. And many companies behave the same way. We will wait with great patience & see if MCO follows fundamentals or any model which pretends to have answers about how MCO is valued. I certainly hope it does go up.


I distrust all figures produced by people as I have seen so much variability in the ways they have been prepared. The same figures get plugged into equations & pops out seemingly right answers. It is all too good to be true. Also having seen the real data in data warehouse supporting those figures as an auditor I distrust the data integrity. Furthermore after having been involved with IT security and seeing poor access models controlling manipulation of that data where there was inadequate audit logs explaining who was manipulating said data I feel even more strongly not to trust even the best homogenized, pasturised figures. All such data plugged into DCF equations have an error rate attached plus conjoined with small deficiencies of DCF really make my head spin as too what is reality.

Reality is hard data, hard facts , good access management & good audit logging. We don't get that in real world. So I feel my above skepticism is very well grounded in my experience.


By the way I rate all your postings highly as they adds value. Mine are more obtuse and do not add much value. I guess we are two different people.


I guess in my previous post I was more having fun and laughing at myself. Also comment about ^&*% s h i t went too far . I apologise for that.


wbddrss