Has anyone thought about what the SP of MMR could reach when it resumes trading? I have been thinking about it as I have watched my BPH shares go 10 bags (after a little swifty I pulled with BPHOA this morning) ... and think I have an idea of how MMR will go (happy to be corrected)...
If we go purely on a SP of BPH (with 36% of Advent), say at 30c when MMR resumes trading, then MMR (with 48.2% of Advent) should be about 40c. This has been the historical trend, or even more so with MMR way out in front of BPH. The proportions of interest will change after the Advent CR and future CRs by BPH, as well as MMR's limitation of investment under the PDF Act. I see MMR and BPH being about equal in the end, in their interest in Advent and share price.
But, the terms of settlement of disputes and recent CRs (by my calculations) will mean that MMR will have about 882 million shares on issue compared with BPH's 583 million shares on issue. I'm not sure how to factor that difference into estimating MMR's potential SP - perhaps someone else can assist? I also don't know how much of a difference the number of shares on issue make to your average investor - the idea of tax-free gains make a huge difference.
The hype around BPH certainly gives it a really good head start and as pointed out by some commentators, many of the long suffering holders of MMR may abandon ship once we resume trading. But then I do believe that PDF status will attract swarms of investors after tax-free gains, even some BPH holders who previously seemed to pine for MMR's destruction to maximise BPH's interest in Advent. This is not about BPH or MMR, it is about Advent Energy and PEP11.
Then there is Advent. Once again purely based on a BPH SP of 30c, I calculate Advent's share value to be about 83c each. Talk about a discount for those taking part in the current Advent CR at 5c per share! Advent has just under 191 million shares on issue tightly held by BPH, MMR, GBA and others.
I am tired of seeing $0.004 as the MMR SP on my trading platform and hope DB can get this train back on track as soon as possible. We all need to send a message that we want MMR back on track urgently and will back DB all the way to get it done!