conix, Mate do the numbers and try to work out what the dividends are. If they start with 4% plus and for the first years we don't know what it will be, it may be higher, plus add what Wilgar is and remember it wont take long to mine out Wilgar. Add the possibility of a few further rich hits and remember we have no idea what's under Wilgar. Then there is that ink blotter mark below the South west corner then there is the ramping up to somewhere between 5 an 10 MTa.
Truth is and we can thank the ASX for this, we don't have a flaming clue as to what is there as the JORC code is as useful as a bit of toilet paper. It is supposed to give information so we can have a predictable idea of what is there.
It has clearly failed at that task. What it clearly indicates is an idea of what we will be mining from year approximately five onwards (only from the central part of the deposit) and that is on one condition only and that is Fairfield and the SW corned don't turn up further good grades between now and the first five years.
I don't see them putting sub 1% through the mill if Fairfield and the SW corner turn up plus 3%.
Dependant on grades it is not out of the realm of possibility that the 1B number could be hit very early in mining but remember it will take some time for the mill to be fine tuned. I think it took EQN a couple of years to ramp up to design capacity and I don't know what caused that.
Mate one of two things will happen either we will be extremely disappointed or very surprised. Remember this is possibly a forty year mine life so a high PE ratio will be appropriate.
I think WM intends to stick it up the doubters in a very friendly way, winners are grinners.
All the shorters will tell the story in the pub for years to come if only I had been a buyer.
As for the $10 mate we don't have a clue.
CDU Price at posting:
$3.39 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
