VH,
I think this is more to do with their SNE asset, not the company as such. As for the funds raised so far, use June 2014 as a starting point till now, AUD 280mil in case of FAR (i.e, 8mil, 54.7, 40, 60, 80, 45mil). The media articles in the AFR & The Australian mentioned using Jeffries hired to sell 30% in SNE.
So an alternate approach to look at this is to recoup sunk costs & work out the total capital spendings thus far by the JV, times 30%. Then factor in a 'drill' premium to that & u walk away with a Profit b4 tax (after depreciation, capitalised costs etc) and a new JV Partner onboard.
The JV has spent around USD 1.15 bil (ie CNE's 31 December 2018 book value of 463mil/40% = USD 1157mil or use what FAR r saying over 1bil.
So 30% * USD 1.15bil = USD 345 mil minimum for the 145 mmbbls (i.e 483 mmbbls * 30%) on offer without any premium.
Use COP's 1.54x (i.e 440/ 286 for 35% sale) as an alternate approach or the high of 2.4x that KOS's Tortue sale got them for the 60% sale to BP (ie USD 916/376mil). Kosmos r applying the same factor for the upcoming 20% sale as the resource is lots bigger as r the costs (range being USD 700-950mil including past costs of appr USD 300mil for 20% sale, refer latest CMD slides).
Most buyers will know these approaches as well benchmark deals for similar sort of startup projects & whatever price factor is required for a pre-dev project with cashflow in 2022 on top of the conventional DCF approach. Just my thoughts for now.
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