Hi NZT and all,
What to potentially expect!
"A high proportion of patients achieving at least a 50% reduction in Total Symptom Score (TSS50), which is the gold-standard primary endpoint in myelofibrosis trials".
Let's extrapolate that:
Interim data showed 46% at 12 weeks and 80% at 38 weeks; positive final results could confirm or even improve on these rates over a larger and longer-exposed patient cohort.
Clinically meaningful spleen volume reductions, especially SVR25 (≥25% reduction) and SVR35 (≥35% reduction), which are recognized by regulatory agencies as important efficacy endpoints.
Interim data showed 30% of patients achieved SVR25 and 20% achieved SVR35; final data may show these rates sustained or improved, particularly with longer treatment duration.
Evidence that symptom improvement and spleen reduction are durable, with benefits increasing over time (i.e., higher response rates at later timepoints, such as 38 or 52 weeks).
Possibly, a subset of patients achieving deep or complete responses, or meaningful reversal of bone marrow fibrosis, which would be a significant differentiator.
Continued demonstration of an excellent safety profile, with few or no treatment-related serious adverse events.
Maintenance of the favorable tolerability seen in both the combination and monotherapy settings, which is crucial for long-term disease management.
Biomarker data or clinical evidence suggesting disease modification—such as reduction in bone marrow fibrosis, improvement in blood counts, or reversal of cytopenias—would be a major positive, as this is rarely achieved with current therapies.
Positive outcomes in patients with high-risk features or those refractory to standard-of-care (ruxolitinib), which would expand the drug’s clinical utility.
Data robust enough to support engagement with regulators (FDA/EMA) for a pivotal Phase III trial design, and possibly attracting partnership or licensing interest
Big pharma companies with hematology or oncology portfolios (e.g., GSK, Novartis, BMS, AbbVie, Takeda) will likely initiate discussions for licensing, co-development, or acquisition deals. Recent deals, such as Takeda’s $1.3B+ partnership with Keros Therapeutics for a late-stage hematology asset, show the scale and appetite for innovative therapies in this space.
Early- to mid-stage assets with strong Phase II data often attract upfront payments, milestones, and royalty agreements, especially if the mechanism is novel or complementary to existing therapies.
Companies developing or marketing JAK inhibitors (like GSK’s momelotinib/Omjjara, Novartis’ Jakavi/ruxolitinib) will closely benchmark SNT-5505’s efficacy and safety data against their own products. If SNT-5505 demonstrates superior or complementary benefits—such as improved symptom control, spleen volume reduction, or disease modification—they may accelerate their own combination trials or seek to combine SNT-5505 with their agents.
Firms with competing assets in Phase III (e.g., pelabresib, navtemadlin, selinexor) will reassess their clinical strategies, potentially adjusting trial designs or endpoints to stay competitive.
If SNT-5505’s data are best-in-class or first-in-class, acquisition offers are possible, especially from companies seeking to strengthen their rare hematology portfolios or fill gaps as JAK inhibitor patents expire.
Big pharma may also make strategic equity investments or pre-emptive bids to secure access before pivotal Phase III data.
Expect rapid, detailed due diligence: pharma will scrutinize the full Phase II dataset, including subgroup analyses, biomarkers, durability of response, and safety in diverse populations, to validate commercial potential and regulatory feasibility.
So what happens to us ?
If SNT-5505’s data are as strong as anticipated and Syntara is seen as first-in-class, a re-rating to 15–25 cents per share (A$175–300M market cap) is supported by multiple independent analyst models.
Further upside is possible if Syntara secures a major licensing deal, attracts a takeover bid, or expands its pipeline into additional high-value indications.
The key catalyst is the EHA2025 data. If the results confirm first-in-class efficacy and safety, the current price would appear deeply discounted relative to the asset’s potential and sector norms.
Thanks all for your continued support of objective based scientific research rationales.
SNT is going along just nicely. I knew I was onto a scientific achiever when Hashan Del Silva joined the board and subsequently bought was it $3 million in shares. He is a scientific Guru.
Kpax
(20min delay)