At $2.65 with a half yearly dividend of 11c that represents a yield of 8.3% PA. How many companies are there on the ASX with that sort of yield? How many growth companies are there on the ASX with that sort of yield?
There is a fear that the dividend stream to BTA will decrease over time. It won't:
1. Governments will continue stockpiling for fear of a pandemic. If there is something that swine flu in Australia showed us is was that the system didn't handle it very well, and it was plain dumb luck that the disease this time was not as lethal as it could have been.
2. Tamiflu (and peramivir, which is closer to Tamiflu in mode of action) resistance will become increasingly problematic. Relenza seems intrinsically less prone to being subject to resistance.
3. When the patent expires in 5 years time laninamivir will take over.
4. The cash alone from a laninamivir deal will be a substantial fraction of the current market cap.
5. IV Relenza use may become standard treatment in severely ill flu victims.
6. HRV treatment, other drugs in the pipeline.
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