CKA 2.25% 8.7¢ cokal limited

Value Post Domain Deal

  1. 11,981 Posts.
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    I have reviewed the Broker’s Report 27 October 2017 to search for a valuation for Cokal post the ceding of 30% of BBM to Domain International Holdings.
    Report has loads of good information but poorly presented in my opinion. It takes a conservative stance and I don’t see any over reach.

    The following NPV values are stated in Broker’s report.
    60% of BBM Anak, PCI and Coking = AUD 74 Million
    Recovery of sunk costs from the 40% partner= AUD 22 million
    BBM Underground, TBAR, BBP, etc = AUD 23 million
    Other pluses and minuses = -- AUD 13 Million
    Final NPV = AUD 106 Million
    No. of shares 613 million NPV/share = 17 cents for Consensus Coal Price going forward.

    NPV/share = 58 cents for Spot Coal Price
    Making Adjustment for Ceding of 30% of BBM
    So take away half of BBM NPV = AUD 37 million
    New NPV for Cokal = AUD 69 million @ Consensus.
    No. Shares (say) 700 million NPV/share = 9.8 cents for Consensus Coal Price going

    NPV/share = about 30 to 35 cents for Spot Coal Price
    From my near 50 years of experience the “consensus” price is always 20++% too low as the Analysts are always protecting their butts.
    So I think we are still looking at 15 cents.
    And really?? AUD 23 million for BBM Underground, TBAR and BBP. You have got to be kidding and as well this does not recognise the shallow high value PCI coal to the west of the river.
    So that is my opinion and I hope it is understandable.
 
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