Value Post Domain Deal, page-5

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Kepo

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12/05/18

04:16

Post #: 33050347
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Originally posted by ShareJagger ↑

I have reviewed the Broker’s Report 27 October 2017 to search for a valuation for Cokal post the ceding of 30% of BBM to Domain International Holdings.
Report has loads of good information but poorly presented in my opinion. It takes a conservative stance and I don’t see any over reach.
The following NPV values are stated in Broker’s report.
60% of BBM Anak, PCI and Coking = AUD 74 Million
Recovery of sunk costs from the 40% partner= AUD 22 million
BBM Underground, TBAR, BBP, etc = AUD 23 million
Other pluses and minuses = -- AUD 13 Million
Final NPV = AUD 106 Million
No. of shares 613 million NPV/share = 17 cents for Consensus Coal Price going forward.
NPV/share = 58 cents for Spot Coal Price
Making Adjustment for Ceding of 30% of BBM
So take away half of BBM NPV = AUD 37 million
New NPV for Cokal = AUD 69 million @ Consensus.
No. Shares (say) 700 million NPV/share = 9.8 cents for Consensus Coal Price going
NPV/share = about 30 to 35 cents for Spot Coal Price
From my near 50 years of experience the “consensus” price is always 20++% too low as the Analysts are always protecting their butts.
So I think we are still looking at 15 cents.
And really?? AUD 23 million for BBM Underground, TBAR and BBP. You have got to be kidding and as well this does not recognise the shallow high value PCI coal to the west of the river.
So that is my opinion and I hope it is understandable.

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Npv for 8yrs of 2mtpa will change depends on cost, coal prices, rates etc. But $0.15 is on the low side.

They use $23m for tbar and bbm underground cos they were lazy and just use the total capex spent.

Npv for the whole of projects will change over time.

CKA Price at posting: 4.4¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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Last 7.7¢		Change 0.004(5.48%)		Mkt cap ! $83.07M

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