Value - what value?, page-102

Your thinking seems logical.

I'd suspect COE's cost of supply may be closer to $4/GJ so the GSAs are $4/GJ GM, spot gas is ~$1/GJ GM. Which would make COE even closer to where it hoped to be. (54×4)/((54×4)+(14×1))= 94%. 54TJ is 80% of plant capacity, you'd need to provide that level of flexibility to the buyers.

I don't necessarily see that the 90% of 54 TJ/d would be an Orbost constraint, with much lower spot prices the utilities would buy only their minimum annual bill under the GSA (which could be ~90%) regardless of how Orbost is performing to minimise their gas purchase costs. If the utilities sought more gas COE would top them up from spot (unlikely to be required unless spot gas spikes in which case APA appears to pick up the tab?)
Waiting (im)patiently for Monday. Hopefully more of the story will be revealed.
dyor