don't forget its a fairy tale ... some things have value and...

don't forget its a fairy tale ... some things have value and some things do not ... like Athena has value but only really unlocked by OP3D drilling & development ... means you got to stay in longer to realize value.

No one thinks 30PJ pa in 2021 & 22 is at risk (that as about 82 TJ/d all day every day???

No one thinks an Revenue exit rate midpoint multiple of 3X is too high for a company delivering no growth (remembering it is just developing current resources).

DDD makes a very good point ... market is valuing us at CURRENT production rates ... but it should b forward looking. IF and its a big IF, future production is less (and the market is right) then the DCF drops. What if Sole is just ~45TJ/d ... the expect 23 PJ of annual sales becomes ~17 PJ ... so we lose 6PJ ... although I would argue its contracted volume and the GSA takes care of us.

But just for grins .... I reduced the annual sales by 6PJ and leave everything else unchanged.

Model spits out



I'd make the observation that the low fair value of $0.35 is pretty much where we trade now ... ,market not believing the GSA's and our exit multiple and discount rate reflect a low/no growth company with uncertain revenues.

What I would like COE mgmt do is issue at weekly report, that shows 2 things

Total PJ sold under GSA
Total PJ sold at spot pricing (and ASP of spot for the week ... although that might not be something they would want to highlight)

That will prove our revenue is stable and reliable