AEL amplitude energy limited

Value - what value?, page-98

  1. 5,035 Posts.
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    Hi @LongGrasser0800

    I think your numbers look right to me.

    This is how I see it

    Let's assume GSA revenue = $8.00/GJ
    Gas sales spot revenue= $5.00/GJ

    COE can supply 68TJ/day of gas

    1. Best case, plant fixed = 68TJ of which 54TJ is GSA and 14TJ at spot = $502k per day
    2. At full GSA = 54TJ x $8/GJ = $432k
    3. Where we are now whist Transition Agreement is in place. We get 90% of GSA = 48.6TJ = $390M
    4. Prior to the GSA we are producing about 30TJ at spot = $150M

    So we are at 260% relative to where we were for majority of Dec quarter (390/150)

    But we are at 80% relative to full run rate if plant hit PC (390/500)

    Now earnings wise:

    Let's assume GSA margin = $5.00/GJ
    Gas spot margin = $2.00/GJ

    COE can supply 68TJ/day of gas

    1. Best case, plant fixed = 68TJ of which 54TJ is GSA and 14TJ at spot = $298k per day
    2. At full GSA = 54TJ x $5/GJ = $270k
    3. Where we are now whist Transition Agreement is in place. We get 90% of GSA = 48.6TJ = $243M
    4. Prior to the GSA we are producing about 30TJ at spot = $60M

    So we are at 400% relative to where we were for majority of Dec quarter (243/60)

    But we are at 90% relative to full run rate if plant hit PC (270/298)

    Whilst the Transition Agreement is in effect we are not too bad compared to where we should have been
 
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