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booz

2,172 Posts.

06/02/16

10:40

Post #: 16957006
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Originally posted by pintohoo ↑

the built environment - not land.

Wait until a combination of the new Chinese laws effect comes in and the possibility of the release of Chinese owned EMPTY real estate in Sydney and Melbourne, plus the odd forced sale of foreign owned property.

The Chinese laws alone will take away the bulk of the high price buying pressure -- and, you know what happens when you take the air compressor nozzle off the balloon and it has a leak anyway.

The result will be negative growth ------ possibly steady.

If, however, for some reason - Chinese decide to exit their empty properties - and, they just might if they see negative growth -------- then, the rout will start - and, in that case - yes, it would be a rout.

Of course - it won't go on forever - but, growth would only reappear after a massive reset - taking a hell of a lot of Aussie 'wealth' with it. Paper wealth of course - like it has been for years.

It really is a simple calculation to see how much speculative money there is in main city real estate - all you do is add up the cost of building and the cost of development of the land on which the building stands -------------- take that away from the 'valuation's or recent prices - and, you have a figure ------- that's the speculative figure.

And, a speculative figure is ALWAYS a risk.

Pinto

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"Massive reset," "sharp decline" "bubble bursting" "house price collapse." Thanks for sharing some revolutionary opinions of which no one was previously aware.
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