Valuing An Early Stage Pharma

For everyone wondering about the context of the stock price and the worthiness of Actinogen as an investment, I offer the following thoughts:
There are a lot of shares out there across a range mostly between 2 and 5 cents - roughly 1.6 billion cheap shares. Actinogen, as all early stage small drug development companies, is a high risk high reward investment play. How do you know if it is worth your time and money?

For Actinogen:

a) It is massively undervalued in the world marketplace. The new CEO and our major shareholder (US based) are definitely working the US and Europe for partners, investors and ultimately stock appreciation. As I posted previously, one example of a very comparable yet inferior early stage alzheimers/cognition player in the US has a market cap of over 1 billion USD, while (whilst?) Actinogen is globally invisible at this time at a tiny market cap of only $86 million AUD. Once Actinogen gains more solid footing and finds global market visibility, that valuing process will exponentially increase its SP. Shares even now are cheap.

If Actinogen hits on only 1/3 of its cylinders, it will be worth at least 60 cents a share AUD. I will forever invest 5 cents to gain a return of 60 cents when the odds of success with our new CEO are well over 50%. And that is my conservative scenario.

b) Of the outstanding 1.6 billion shares, I estimate that about 1-1.2 billion shares are long holds like me and the rest are playing the ups and downs.

c) I do not know of any early stage company with a drug that is generally recognized as safe, that works in the brain as expected, and that has the potential to be a miracle drug across many domains - because if cortisol or cortisol associated neuro-biology is controlled or reduced, it may if the hypothesis is correct become widely used. If it is not the home run I think it is, or a big rugby score (whatever that is called), I expect it will like many drugs find a place improving certain states and conditions just like Dr. K's earlier alzheimers drug which was minimally successful medically and highly effective financially.

d) I believe sooner than later Actinogen will find a number of major development partners, benefit from continuing external research, receive grants and take full advantage of fast track designations. These announcements will increase SP and build global recognition and undeniable footing.

It was nice to watch speculation drive up the price and sad to see profit taking drive the price down but the value proposition, while risky, has improved greatly with the new CEO and will soon begin to perform like a confident well built well trained racehorse. I believe ASX rules make it easier for small players to manipulate AU stock prices than US stock exchanges.