Apologies, I missed that line. OK, so if we also assume they raise the equity portion at current SP ~20c with no discount (as opposed to an 85% premium which I am not sure I have seen done before), that would be 65% dilution and then the SOI would become 4.5B. So on a US$100/kg NdPr case the SP value in your model becomes 36c, about where the market seems to be pricing it now with risk included.
I agree with you on the 10-year timelines for REE projects, China supply risk (and many other factors favouring REE pricing to rise) but many analysts were forecasting NdPr prices in the $150+ range in 2024 and here we are and it is steady at US$50/kg. LYC produce ex-China NdPr and they get paid the same as the China spot prices per their quarterlies, so we are yet to see any evidence of ex-China REO pricing.. If either the NdPr demand outstrips supply in the next 12-24 months or a true ex-China NdPr market pricing is establshed then ARU does become quite interesting, but until then China are in the driver's seat.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- ARU
- Valuing ARU
Valuing ARU, page-59
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 117 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add ARU (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
18.0¢ |
Change
0.005(2.86%) |
Mkt cap ! $415.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
18.0¢ | 18.5¢ | 17.5¢ | $754.5K | 4.202M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 82780 | 18.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
18.5¢ | 908935 | 19 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 82780 | 0.180 |
28 | 1064108 | 0.175 |
54 | 1680778 | 0.170 |
30 | 1124218 | 0.165 |
54 | 1835033 | 0.160 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.185 | 908935 | 19 |
0.190 | 908028 | 24 |
0.195 | 616345 | 19 |
0.200 | 1193512 | 34 |
0.205 | 516749 | 13 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 01/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
ARU (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
I88
INFINI RESOURCES LIMITED
Charles Armstrong, CEO
Charles Armstrong
CEO
SPONSORED BY The Market Online