Apologies, I missed that line. OK, so if we also assume they...

Apologies, I missed that line. OK, so if we also assume they raise the equity portion at current SP ~20c with no discount (as opposed to an 85% premium which I am not sure I have seen done before), that would be 65% dilution and then the SOI would become 4.5B. So on a US$100/kg NdPr case the SP value in your model becomes 36c, about where the market seems to be pricing it now with risk included.

I agree with you on the 10-year timelines for REE projects, China supply risk (and many other factors favouring REE pricing to rise) but many analysts were forecasting NdPr prices in the $150+ range in 2024 and here we are and it is steady at US$50/kg. LYC produce ex-China NdPr and they get paid the same as the China spot prices per their quarterlies, so we are yet to see any evidence of ex-China REO pricing.. If either the NdPr demand outstrips supply in the next 12-24 months or a true ex-China NdPr market pricing is establshed then ARU does become quite interesting, but until then China are in the driver's seat.