Apologies, I missed that line. OK, so if we also assume they raise the equity portion at current SP ~20c with no discount (as opposed to an 85% premium which I am not sure I have seen done before), that would be 65% dilution and then the SOI would become 4.5B. So on a US$100/kg NdPr case the SP value in your model becomes 36c, about where the market seems to be pricing it now with risk included.
I agree with you on the 10-year timelines for REE projects, China supply risk (and many other factors favouring REE pricing to rise) but many analysts were forecasting NdPr prices in the $150+ range in 2024 and here we are and it is steady at US$50/kg. LYC produce ex-China NdPr and they get paid the same as the China spot prices per their quarterlies, so we are yet to see any evidence of ex-China REO pricing.. If either the NdPr demand outstrips supply in the next 12-24 months or a true ex-China NdPr market pricing is establshed then ARU does become quite interesting, but until then China are in the driver's seat.
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Last
18.0¢ |
Change
-0.005(2.70%) |
Mkt cap ! $415.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
19.0¢ | 19.0¢ | 18.0¢ | $163.3K | 889.2K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
17 | 466057 | 18.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
18.5¢ | 515520 | 12 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
17 | 466057 | 0.180 |
29 | 915829 | 0.175 |
49 | 1446442 | 0.170 |
26 | 1632462 | 0.165 |
54 | 1751633 | 0.160 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.185 | 515520 | 12 |
0.190 | 854148 | 24 |
0.195 | 1020329 | 23 |
0.200 | 1369812 | 36 |
0.205 | 579249 | 15 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 03/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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