Apologies, I missed that line. OK, so if we also assume they raise the equity portion at current SP ~20c with no discount (as opposed to an 85% premium which I am not sure I have seen done before), that would be 65% dilution and then the SOI would become 4.5B. So on a US$100/kg NdPr case the SP value in your model becomes 36c, about where the market seems to be pricing it now with risk included.
I agree with you on the 10-year timelines for REE projects, China supply risk (and many other factors favouring REE pricing to rise) but many analysts were forecasting NdPr prices in the $150+ range in 2024 and here we are and it is steady at US$50/kg. LYC produce ex-China NdPr and they get paid the same as the China spot prices per their quarterlies, so we are yet to see any evidence of ex-China REO pricing.. If either the NdPr demand outstrips supply in the next 12-24 months or a true ex-China NdPr market pricing is establshed then ARU does become quite interesting, but until then China are in the driver's seat.
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Last
16.5¢ |
Change
-0.005(2.94%) |
Mkt cap ! $395.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
17.0¢ | 17.0¢ | 16.0¢ | $1.063M | 6.400M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 24995 | 16.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
17.0¢ | 448096 | 11 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 24995 | 0.165 |
90 | 3833041 | 0.160 |
49 | 3703332 | 0.155 |
61 | 3809827 | 0.150 |
23 | 1341287 | 0.145 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.170 | 423096 | 9 |
0.175 | 839340 | 14 |
0.180 | 1897536 | 25 |
0.185 | 1030485 | 18 |
0.190 | 1152921 | 20 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 02/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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