Thank you for the detailed response. A very strong case for ARU that I hadn't considered going through their DFS update and just looking at the numbers at face value. Will continue to keep an eye on LYC quarterly reports and compare their sale prices vs SMM spot pricing to see if the ex-China pricing starts to gain traction.
Another point for REE pricing in general is around half of all NdPr is mined at Bayan Obo in China. If anything happens to that mine (say a natural disaster), there will be a huge shockwave in REE pricing. Kind of like when Kazatomprom had to cut supply guidance due to acid supply issues and the impact it had on U pricing.
Overall, I like ARU over the other big 4 Aussie REE developers (ARU, HAS, NTU, ASM) and I think you are correct in that new supply will take a long time to come online so there could be a real window of opportunity for ARU in the next 5 years if they approve FID and build to schedule.
Will be looking for an entry.
ARU Price at posting:
20.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)