Valuing ARU, page-63

To many unknowns with ARU forecasting at present for myself.

We are not privy to the offtake agreements - pricing structures (caps and floors is all we know) within such that the debt providers are and the equity discussions - partners. We are also not fully aware of terms on debt facilities.

However if the debt providers whom have every detail are well satisfied of what ARU have presented - right through to expected full production dates and the breakup - allocation of profits percentages to debt payback - internal growth financing etc - well I am more than satisfied as well.
Post equity financing construction cash burn - the 12 year term on Mondays ECA debt facility will obviously at this point be the last drawdown facility used for Nolan's construction. Aus Gov term of 15 years first draw down first in the cue. Therefore hypothetically if ARU at full production in 4 years (highly achievable with Aus gov 200 million facility if required) - ARU will have 8 year runway to service this debt facility and other 2 smaller forthcoming coming ones - no probs in my view however this is going to have some concerns with insto's and the like - aka FMG which smashed it opposed to "expert" financial observers.
Sure along the way the Aus Gov facilities will be serviced to a high degree - however extensions to any remaining debt prior to 15 year term should there be any will be a given - much in the way Lynas continues extensions to JARE debt facility as they focus investing with cashflows in company growth and scaling operations.

The offtake caps and floors are well known to all creditors and have built in ESG - ex China supply added value - however there will also be discounts for the early support from financiers tied to their relative large corporations locked in with offtakes - although Hyundai/Kia one will be minimal. My view is looking at a USD150kg is pie in the sky and a far more moderate - balanced pricing that appeases all - perhaps somewhere around the 80USD-100USD is more appropriate to all parties over initial 7 or whatever year offtake contracts. The remaining 20% at spot - well that's the future growth of ARU in my view - the debt facilitators and ARU would have established a balance for debt payback and growth that benefits all parties - short - medium and long term.
BWTAH and just my raving lunatic rumblings so don't invest one $ on such.