Based on Hum's latest announcements, I've calcuated the likely FY22 results with high confidence.
1. HCF May fiscal year-to-date (YTD) cash net profit after tax (CNPAT) is down approximately 61% compared to previous corresponding period (PCP)
PCP is June 2020 to June 2021= $46m.
FY22 is $46m * (1-0.61) = $18m
2. Commercial May fiscal YTD CNPAT up approximately 47% compared to PCP
PCP is June 2020 to June 2021= $22.3m.
FY22 is $22.3 * (1+0.47) = 32.8m
Humm CNPAT FY22 should be ~$50m. Mcap as of Friday = $230m
I also decided to examine the worst case scenario - i.e. if tomorrow Hum had to cease all operations and wind down.
Hum has Net Tangible Assets of ~$400m of which ~$80m in unrestricted cash minus debt note.
Remaining $300m relates to Loan book receivables net of borrowings. Lets assume we sell the loan book at a 80c on the dollar, giving us $240m.
Being conservative, let's say we can get $80m + $240m = $320m of net cash by shutting down Humm.
If I had the cash, or was a PE fund, i'd buy Hum on Monday for $250m and rip it apart to pocket a cool $70m profit on my investment.
Not a bad return - are there any flaws in my calculation?
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