valuing nst on the back of an envelope

NST's all in cash costs are around A$950 so at a gold price of A$1600 the margin is about $650. Multiply by this years forecast production of 110,000 ounces = a profit before tax of A$71.5 million. After 30% tax this becomes $50 million net profit.

So at 95c the market cap is around $400 million or a p.e. of 8.

I think that is about fair value given the risks in mining and the volatility of the gold price.

Also we are mining good dirt at the moment so there is no guarantee we can maintain 110,000 ounces at $950 cost going forward for more than the next few years.

The exploration results have been stellar on the positive side.

Ashburton would probably require a capital raise so I'll apply little value to that.

Appreciate others views.