I have had a go at trying to estimate a future value for PYC using conservative numbers. I did it on an Excel spreadsheet and it’s fairly rudimentary but if the treatments are at all successful they should translate into a river of cash for PYC. In my estimate I used: • low estimates of patient numbers • a slow ramp-up of treatment uptake • discounted upfront payments for ADOA & PMS • discounted price of the drugs for ADOA & PMS • assumed each treatment was licensed out for a flat 10% royalty on sales • assumed gross margin of 80% • assumed 30% tax on profit • assumed a payout ratio of 50%
The main problem I have is that I assume no incoming payments until at least 2024. So there may not be much upward SP movement until then. Also, the long period of potential payback due to the long remaining patent coverage means it would be good to be a young SH now!
On the bright side, if any of the assumptions are more conservative than reality, then the valuation would be proportionally higher.
Have a relaxing Easter.
FHC
PYC Price at posting:
6.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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