Well, much to my embarrassment I found that I’m unable to upload...

Well, much to my embarrassment I found that I’m unable to upload the file to HC.
I have sent it by email to Travel Bug to see if he is able to do it.

Basically, I did 2 scenarios; a “slow uptake” version where full patient “saturation” is achieved by the end of the patent protection and a “fast uptake” where all patients are using the treatment in 5 years.

I assumed no dividends would be paid for the first couple of years as the money from upfront payments is likely to be put back into company growth.

I assumed a flat tax rate of 30% but, as TB pointed out, this may not apply in early years due to accumulated losses. But I’m no tax expert so I just left the tax in.

So in the slow uptake version, the SP is 25c by 2027. In the fast uptake version, the SP is 50c by 2027.

Do I think either scenario is realistic? Not really. There are so many variables to consider. Any one of them could have a big effect on the way the company’s fortunes evolve.

As for SP estimates…maybe they are accurate for that set of circumstances, but they don’t take into account things like market over exuberance that can see the SP explode well past it’s true value. Neither do simple models take into account “macro economic” factors such as WW3 or the collapse of the US$. (Both of which are finite possibilities.)

I hope everyone is refreshed after Easter holidays. Let’s see what the future brings.