We value Invion at AUD 116 million using a risk-adjusted NPV valuation. This is valuing the potential of the clinical programs in smoking cessation, asthma and lupus. We estimate that INV102 in smoking cessation could be launched in 2020 and generate peak sales of USD 150 million. This assumes that the therapy confers a medically meaningful benefit in smoking cessation and is priced at USD 250 per course of treatment and gains 10% market penetration. Other assumptions are: Ø number of smokers (US): 42 million, of which 70% wants to quit smoking (source CDC) Ø 10% of that number succeeds to quit smoking, 90% fails due to a number of reasons Ø Invion can target that group of people, with an expected market share of 5-10% This is based on the number of smokers that cannot continue smoking cessation due to the side effects.
On a similar basis with 10% market penetration and pricing of USD xx, we estimate that INV102 could achieve peak sales of USD 250 million in asthma after being launched in 2020. We value the programs INV103 and INV104 at a considerable lower level because we feel that it will take longer for these therapies to be marketed.
Product Discount Rate NPV Value (AUD mln) Probabilit y of succes Adj NPV (AUD mln) Per Share INV102 smoking cessation 20% 100 60% 60 0.05 INV102 Asthma 20% 80 40% 32 0.034 INV103 Lupus 20% 60 35% 21 0.015 INV104 Asthma 20% 20 15% 3 0.001
Very detailed report was great to read. Will read again in more detail but just want to say well done Invion and the team!
IVX Price at posting:
0.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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