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5.8¢ vanadium resources limited

Great analysis and summary of the news flow and information that...

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Schmidlap

345 Posts.

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18/09/22

14:27

Post #: 63759912
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Originally posted by LovesMining: ↑

Sorry, after 3 drinks, the mind seems to wander a bit, so I crashed into bed, then woke up fresh and decided to continue after realising that I had only quoted a small bit of the really good stuff. Note that these are only excerpts from the interview, but the quality of what he said blew my mind.
So, continuing...
@05:30 onwards, they talk a bit more about resource pools (aka seasoned expertise available in the area), and then go onto the crux of the price used for the PFS. This starts at 05:40:

["Interviewer: ...the PFS that you mentioned, what price did you use when you were working with the PFS?"]
["Jurie: We used a price of (USD) 9 dollars and 3 cents , that's a 15 year look back average from June last year when we did the PFS. We probably would use the same mechanism to get to the DFS. There's a lot of optimism in the market about Vanadium price etc. We'd probably be a bit more conservative simply because we dont have to make the project look good by putting up a higher price. It looks good even at 7 dollars. But off-course, we will be realistic, we will be using a number that's defendable."]

They then go onto talk about the road-map towards FID and this is where things get interesting and more importantly gave me the absolute confidence that this management is ON THE BALL!

["...pointing towards a revised reserve added to that maybe, just giving a bit more colour onto what the future might look like after 25 years because we as I mentioned earlier, we're only using 12% of our resource we would then be putting out some more information on the life of mine on open pit designs and I'm expecting more than a hundred years as the extreme of that. The DFS is chugging along and we cannot see any deviations from the PFS. We are relying on a lot of South African expertise and that expertise is accurate as they know what they are doing and don't expect any bumps in the road.
....the other one is getting the right mix of people involved to get the construction funding going, offcourse one doesn't really put your signature on the dotted line until the DFS is done. But we will be developing a relationship with the right people that's for principal funding and other forms of funding as well to make sure that once we have the DFS done, we don't have to scramble around and put something together, so that's another focus as well."]
My take on the above is that we are in excellent hands.
I personally tend never to worry about the share price of a company whose fundamentals and management are sterling. Once the project is up and running, the world will notice and that's when your share price rises higher as everyone rushes to grab a piece of the pie.

In time, you'll see all the termites, sorry I meant downrampers, come out of the woodworks (I did the termite reference again didn't I?) - I would personally stay strong in my beliefs as long as the fundamentals have not changed. If you think for one second that these downrampers are going to materially affect the project with their words, that's simply not true.

In fact at these levels and knowing more about this through this interview, I am going to load up a lot more.

Remember the key facts:
(1) Management has a significant buy-in to this project. In other words, they have skin-in-the-game. This is a self preservation motive to ensure that the project progresses as efficiently as possible with minimum share dilution. Jurie even clearly mentioned this in a different interview.
(2) Our grades are right up there with the top companies
(3) Our LOM is potentially close to a 100 years - my children and grand-childrens will be enjoying the fruits of my wife and my investment.
(4) Management is very conservative when it comes to cash burn and allocate funds effeciently
(5) Management has performed CRs at a premium to the VWAP with Raubex. I am personally confidant, they will continue to do CRs at a premium or if not at a premium, certainly not at the ridiculous discounts other Vanadium companies have been doing.
(6) Once the DFS comes out - FID will follow 'very closely after that'.

I personally can see a lot of news flow happening in the next 2-3 months as we do DFS, off-takes, FID, funding etc..

So I'm going to tighten my seatbelt and hang on to my shares with sharpened claws. mmyyyyy preeeeciousssss...

Expand

Great analysis and summary of the news flow and information that has been coming for the past 12 months. When the DFS comes out and we get a look at the final definitive numbers, I figure that if the numbers are proven, realistic, relevant and superior to the PFS, then their is little to roadblock those last stages of Off-takes, FID and Finance.

The project to date has not skipped a beat, if anything it has out performed it's own modest expectations. For example, as per 22/6/22:
◆ Pilot Plant test work indicates elevated overall recoveries of 84.4% indicating a 4% increase to
metrics used for the Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS)
◆ Magnetic separation concentrates indicate reduction of reagent consumption compared to
metrics used for the PFS, due to lower than expected Silica content
◆ Magnetic separation test work indicates V2O5 recoveries in excess of 96% achievable at
concentrate grades above 2.10% V2O5

These positives will improve the profitability of the operations in a significant way.

The Capex - best of any other developing miner. Inflation issues? Maybe, but the assessment in 2021, included a 15% contingency. Raubex by the terms of the CR agreement, are competing to be one of the major suppliers of the mining operations. Also now being a major shareholder, they have a stake - I see this as a positive for getting the mine up and running ASAP.
The Opex - superior to any Australian miners and able to keep the mine profitable with Vanadium price fluctuations
The size and quality of the resource - this mine has the potential to be one of the largest Vanadium mines in the world moving forward.

I remember FMG in the early days, nobody thought that Forrest could achieve what he did. Couldn't compete with the big boys.

At some point soon the evidence will present itself to investors whether the mine is going ahead and whether it will likely be very profitable.
It is up to the individual investor to look at the facts as they present themselves and purchase shares at the relative price. I am happy that I got in when I did and am not concerned with the day to day fluctuations up or down (nor the recent HC fears about takeover talk - paranoid white noise).

The wait to construction is not long in relative terms and I look forward to seeing this as a profitable and dividend producing investment moving forward. Good luck to all those who invest.

Last edited by Schmidlap: 18/09/22

VR8 Price at posting: 9.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
20 Upvote

9 Great analysis

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