With the DFS due in a few weeks, I thought I might revisit the PFS numbers (released 22/06/21) so that I knew what to look for when it drops.
- NPV (post tax) using 8% Discount rate on the current 74% ownership = USD 884M
Financial predictions (based on 100% ownership, not the actual 74% - reduce accordingly):
- EBITDA for life of mine (25yrs) USD 5.8B (USD 231M p.a)
- Average Annual free cash flow (from commencement) USD 139M
- IRR (post-tax) 45%
- Opex: USD 3.08/lb
- Capex: USD 200M (includes a 15% contingency)
- Payback = 25 months
- Vanadium price assumed USD 9.03/lb (but still profitable at USD 6.00/lb)
- They considered that the best price range for Vanadium to be sitting at for battery take up is between $7.50- $10/lb
Since the PFS, there has been inflation pressure, but counter to that, there is also significant improved product retrievals from mined samples.
Hard not to be excited by this project
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