Vanadium news, page-88

As I make the following observations I do not claim to have all the basic pieces to what constitutes AVL's business but I want to make some striking comparisons.

Cell cube technology looks like the best but the potential market just isn't really catching on as quickly as it has to for a vanadium energy business to run profitably so far. I make that claim after looking at American Vanadium's situation. They were all geared up with leases for 'mining' Vanadium with expectations given a thumping over the past few years. It's become financially untenable to hold onto the mining leases so the focussed American Vanadium has been on Gildemeister's excellent energy storeage solution Cellcube. Even then the sales are slow and that's in the U.S. where the market would be tens times greater than Australia's. A year ago U.S AV staff were reduced and management 'retired', but new management continue to attempt to keep it just viable (all their financials are on the website). It's high risk evidently and, SP going from about $1.50 to 0.01 cents over just a few years doesn't look good at all for a positive forecast.

Cellcube works well in parts of Europe because energy options are so expensive it makes Vanadium redox batteries viably cheap. Oil prices currently now very cheap and in particular U.S. retail energy costs being much cheaper than Europe's could be one primary reason Cellcubes are not so a hot ticket in the U.S. as it might be in Europe. I am not sure where Australia fits in relatively. I think somewhere in the middle. If US had big demand for vanadium redox flow batteries would the Chinese sit by and just watch or would they have done a take over?

Obama's administration with its carbon policies has sought to make vanadium redox energy solutions attractive through carbon pricing. But it doesn't seem to have worked much so far for I think the energy costs reasons stated above. Gildemeister's Cellcube looks to be a fantastic technology but like a car or camera way ahead of its time, it's going to have to sit a long while, and Vanadium electrolyte can do just that but shareholders will have to rethink in Buddhist terms what 'LT' means.

Vanadium redox doesn't have the demand it would appear because it's not required for certain countries current energy situations. Europe would appear to be mature market. Russia is playing hard, Cellcube gives certainty and autonomy there.

Vincent's networking would appear then to be about sounding out the case for Cellcubes in Australia. Is his timing for the market right? He certainly is keeping staffing down, so he knows it's not imminent but projective for future trends and the ripe market might be when Ausyrakians are well and truly living with lithium energy storage solution. No Gildemeister sales executive might indicate there isn't enough teeth in the Australian market just yet. Master sales agent status would help but it hasn't happened for American Vanadium so far. The mining side might pick up as demand picks up= a very long term projection. So AVL's website might be better placed to emphasise selling Cellcube rather than mining at this stage. Someone correct me.

Until China and regulators in other countries change the energy demand equation I can't see the critical mass for vanadium energy solutions any time soon in Australia. But I can't see much anyway.

One thing that worries me is that as history shows to date a country doesn't always take the most economically viable route for its citizens. If the routing is dictated sufficiently by vested interests and corporate spin, engineered-fate could have it that we don't get cheap energy in Australia. Therefore getting what's best is also a politically determined choice. How to make the case for vanadium redox batteries, politically? Can we rely solely on any government to quietly make the right choice for nation or for a few mates?

SoS guages that it will likely take two years for substantial SP movements backed by fundamentals to occur for AVL to have teeth. That would be nice, as I said I don't have all the basic pieces and Vincent, surely, would be well aware of the U.S. situation acutely and so why does he persist, I'll have to learn...