Nice post and I pretty much agree with all of that. It is definitely still at the networking stage. A couple of additional points.
China has been into flow batteries a lot longer than most realize as backup power supplies. They don't look as pretty as Gildemeister but you can bet they are working well after many years. I'm seeing what looks like a big upswing there and mostly centered around the north. With a good part of solar still largely underutilized and much more planned China must at some stage make a move to battery backup and I think they know it.
The other issue for China is the upswing in ev's. The truth is that in many cases ev's are causing more pollution that ICE's as they rely on coal for recharging. Anyway, I think China will drive this and not the western world.
Australia I think has a great chance but just a chance. When you here comparisons on the cost of power you never see the cost of providing the infrastructure as part of the equation. With our remote locations and abundance of sun in those locations I can see solar and flow batteries being cheaper where there is no infrastructure or where it needs to be replaced. I'm sure that is exactly the kind of deal Vincent is currently networking for,
My caution to Vincent is that AVL must consider China in the equation. There is no point building a business to be blown away by the Chinese at the first sign of an upswing.
My opinion for this to work over two years.
- We need a commercial Chinese unit to up-sell from.
- We need a smaller retail unit sometime in year 2 preferably branded as VSUN
- Continue the electrolyte plant learning curve.
Vincent is spot on with electrolyte as freight charges are a big cost factor. Bringing empty units from German would be a big advantage.
We need to consider VSUN first and a mine second.
We are not at the stage of mining Vanadium and astute of Vincent to note it.
We saw prices climb strongly when South African shipments were held hack only to crash as they came back online. Vanadium mining is for the future... maybe 5 years away
AVL Price at posting:
1.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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