That is a likely scenario I agree. The other 3 scenarios which...

That is a likely scenario I agree.

The other 3 scenarios which could be taking place in parallel are:

1. CNP is being traded heavily by the proprietary desks at instos. Citigroup definitely.
2. Another sub holder may emerge.
3. Shorts are being closed out. The ASX short list shows 10m shares 'officially' shorted ( <1.2% of CNP) as of close last night. (I don't check it every day so I am not sure if this is up or down). With under 30 trading days until D-Day and the ann from Uncle this week, anyone with a short position would be nervous.

I guess my point is that Vanguard did not just pick up 42m on market in the last few days. They already had 35m odd last Nov and the 8m addition represents a very small part of the substantial turnover we have seen in the last 3 months.

I have a very long position on this so I am keen for it to fly as much as anyone.