22/6/25. ASX 20 Leaders Weekly Wrap. U.S. bombs Iran nuclear...

22/6/25. ASX 20 Leaders Weekly Wrap. U.S. bombs Iran nuclear sites. What happens next?

By now everybody and their many dogs will know that the U.S. bombed Iran nuclear sites. Iran has been threatening dire consequences for the U.S. in the event of U.S. dropping bombs.

I don't know what happens next. But where stocks are concerned, history may provide some guidance.

1. Markets generally will drop while Energy and U.S. Defence stocks will pop.
2. The market drop will be short-lived, giving an opportunity for the fearless to buy. (The market drop lasts about two weeks to two months.
3. Stocks that popped will return to the mean - the short term moves are great for traders.
4. Markets, after the short term drop will go on to newer highs - much higher in the next year.

We'll keep all of that in mind as we go through activity in the 20 Leaders over the past week.

Weekly % Change for 20 Leader Stocks

Top two performers this week were

• 1.BXB up 6.64%. Worldwide logistics company. Expect BXB to drop with the market then pop.
• 2. Aristocrat Leisure up 4.93%. A gaming machine company, not particularly responsive to Geo-political events such as war. Expect ALL to drop with the market then rebound.

Next best performers.

1. WDS. up 2.21%. Energy usually spikes during warring conditions. For the past month, WDS has been up +16.26% mostly due to warring conditions. Expect the spike to continue then drop back to the mean.
2. CBA +1.77%. Basically a bank contained within Australia. International events affecting the market will impact CBA. Any drop is likely to be a buying opportunity.
3. WTC. up +1.76%. A technology company with international focus. Revenue is likely to be unaffected by widening Middle East conflict. Probably see some drop in line with market, then rebound.
4. Goodman, up +1.74%. Goodman is a globally diversified company focussing on logistics and data centres. This diversification provides a buffer against the Middle-East conflict. Again - expect a drop with the market then rebound. If interest rates begin to go up as a result of a wider Middle-East conflict, GMG could see a longer pull-back.

Three of the worst performers this week were the big Iron Ore miners. BHP down-3.03%. Rio down -3.96%. Fortescue down -6.61%.

Mining is highly energy intensive. A spike in oil prices is likely to have a big impact on the three big miners. The miners are largely dependent on the China trade. If the Middle-East conflict begins to affect the Chinese economy, that bodes ill for the miners. Expect more falls in the Miners. Keep checking what happens in next two to four weeks. The big miners have been in serious down trends for a few weeks. I thought they might be getting down to a "buy" level, but the Middle East events change that. We could be getting to a once in a decade buy opportunity in the big miners. Patience is a virtue.

That's all for this week.

Stay safe.