Vanilla XJO Thread, page-625

"u r probably not right. Do you have any idea how big Iran is? Population and land size?"

Yes, believe it or not I have extensive knowledge of many things.

Trump's attack on Iran resets the game. All bets are off and all possibilities are back on the table. It would be foolish to make new predictions until Iran's next major response is revealed.

Trump said "two weeks" then attacked after two days. Therefore it is unlikely that Iran will negotiate with the USA unless Iran wishes to surrender unconditionally. So, negotiations between Iran and the USA are unlikely to happen.

Israel attacked Iran while negotiations between Iran and the USA were still in progress. It is clear that Israel and the USA have been collaborating closely throughout. Therefore it is unlikely that Iran will negotiate with Israel unless Iran wishes to surrender unconditionally. So, negotiations between Iran and Israel are unlikely to happen.

A peaceful outcome was probably still a possibility until Israel attacked Iran. The delusional Orange Joker now seems to think that he has won the war and as good as won the Nobel peace prize. He seems to think that his attack on Iran is one of the greatest victories in history. In my opinion, he is totally deluded. He has just started a new war that he thinks he can end just by making more threats, and then probably carrying them out. I think that peace is now unlikely to happen for quite a long time. (Have a look at Germany's treacherous WW2 attack on Russia and Japan's treacherous attack on Pearl Harbour if you can't figure out why.)

I won't pretend to be able to know what is going to happen next. But the above are three things that I will bet on not happening. I will be trading accordingly. I think that being nimble may be important next week. And, as events unfold, my predictions will change accordingly although I won't be posting new predictions here every time that something changes.

There are some who claim to be able to foretell the future in absolute terms. For example, in the middle of the second world war a seer predicted in a letter to Churchill the exact date when the war would end, and the seer was correct to within a few days. The seer could apparently see things far beyond what had not yet happened. I can't.

I can only make logical predictions based on what I know to have happened and based on what I think is probably happening. Every time that something new happens, it changes the picture and changes the predictions. The same skills (or lack thereof for some players) are used to play the markets. In fact the current Middle-Eastern wars are part of the big picture for markets, and this is one of the reasons why many traders are interested in what is happening in the Middle-East.

The more informed discussion that there is here, the better informed that participants in the discussions become. So Tim, I invite you to say what you think will happen next and why, rather than just naysaying what other posters think.