Vanilla XJO Thread, page-653

28/6/25. ASX Weekly Wrap.

XJO up this week +0.1%. STW up +0.31%.

STW (ETF tracking the XJO) has been in a sideways range for most of the month of June. This range is 75.87 to 77.51. That's a movement of about 1.64 points or 2%, a very narrow range for am index like XJO (STW). (Range on XJO is about 1.95% - not much different from STW.

The chart remains a little above the 20-Day EMA and opposite the Point of Control of the Volume Profile. Point of Control is the level at which most activity (volume) has occurred.

20-Day EMA is one of the most important Moving Averages watched by traders/investors and is taken as a measure of the medium term trend. While the chart isat or above the 20-Day EMA and the EMA is rising, then the market is in a medium term up-trend.

Point of Control is often a very highly contested level in the market, where bulls and bears are battling for control of the market. Given that the chart is at the Point of Control, a bounce above the 20-Day EMA would mean that the bulls are back in control. A break below the 20-Day EMA at the Point of Control means that the bears are in control.

At the moment, the market appears to be in equilibrium - neither bulls nor bears are dominating.

Relative Strength, Market/Sectors.

While the broad market chart suggests the market is in equilibrium, the Sector performance chart shows a somewhat lopsided picture.

Only two sectors out-performed the XJO this week, The two out-performers were the two biggest sectors in the market, Financials and Materials. Those two sectors make up about 50% of the market. So those two out-performing sectors kept the broad market in equilibrium. But a lot of sectors were piling on to the other end of the see-saw.

Sectors out performing the XJO this week:

1. Financials 1.82%.
2. Materials +1.78%

Sectors performing about the same as the XJO this week

1. Discretionary +0.02%
2. Communications -0.09%

Sectors performing worse than the XJO this week.

1. Technology -1.45%.
2. Health -1.53%%.
3. Property -2.09%
4. Staples -2.27%
5. Industrials -2.63%.
6. Utilities -2.84%
7. Energy -4.46%

I've also included Gold Miners (an industry group) -6.09% and IAF (Bonds) +0.53%

Energy had been benefitting from the Middle East turmoil but the cease-fire this week took the premium out of the Energy sector. Gold Miners were similarly affected.

The Ratio of Bonds to Stocks has improved in favour of Bonds againthis week despite the end of the Israel/Iran war. That suggests that all is not well in the minds of investors.

Cumulative NewHighs-NewLows.

Cumulative NH-NL chart kicked back up this week with the end to hostilities in the Middle East. This is an indicator for the long-term investor. While it is heading to the upside, long-term investors can continue to hold and perhaps add to their investments.

Australian VIX

This week, VIX dropped from the higher levels seen in the previous two weeks to suggest that relatively low levels of volatility will be seen in the next 30 days.

U.S. Fear and Greed Index.

CNN's Fear and Greed Index is a sentiment index for the U.S. market. In the previous week, it was sitting in the Neutral part of the gauge. It kicked up this week back into the Greed part of the gauge. So investors have renewed faith that the market will continue to the upside.

If the needle gets into the Extreme Greed part of the gauge, contrarians often take that as a sign of a possible pull-back in the market. It's not a good timing measure, but can act as an important warning signal.

Conclusion.

The Australian market was in pause mode this week, and not much movement has occurred during the month of June. ASX remains in a sideways range at the top of its bull rally.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative remains bullish.

War Premium in sectors like Energy and Gold Miners has disappeared.

Bonds are out performing stocks for the second week in a row. That suggests that there is a simmering fear lying within investors. Such an out performance by bonds occurred before the February-April correction. That's a warning signal.

Take care.