VEN Intrinsic Value, page-14

  1. 2,835 Posts.
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    Thanks @Cthevalue

    I would value each commercially successful Vali well (if the flow rate is similar to Vali-1) at $10 million (net to VEN). Other wells may turn out to be better or worse. $90 million total for Vali (net to VEN)...

    Assumptions/reasons: Based on the production of 5 billion cubic feet of gas (life of the well), the total revenue would be $53 million, using $10 per GJ. But STO may take up around 30% of the revenue for processing and the use of the pipeline.
    So, the total revenue may be $37 million including STO charges.
    Minus the cost of drilling and fracking is around $7.5 million, so we have $30 million.
    But VEN owns half of the well, so VEN's share would equal $15 million.
    Take a further 1 million for the pipeline per well (VEN needs to build a pipeline).
    Considering the operating expenses by VEN and the discount rate of future cash flows, it would be fair IMO to assume $10 million value per well or $90 million for 9 wells for Vali.

    Odin may bring another $40 million net to VEN assuming there are four wells and all are successful.

    If the CO2 well brings in $160 million revenue net to VEN and assuming the costs (capital/operating) equal half of the total revenue it may bring another $80 million value.

    Considering the risks, I think it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect over $100 million market cap. The MD says they are aiming to be a $100-200 million market cap company (hopefully without a cap raise!). There is also Cervantes, Albany wells and the NT assets on top.


    Last edited by ggwill: 06/06/21
 
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