Hi all,
I've been experimenting with other methods of valuing oil and gas companies besides a DCF. I found the EV/2P$ ratio and plugged in some figures for VEN and some peer companies. From what I understand, a lower ratio means the company's shares are cheap and a higher ratio means they are expensive. When I first plugged in the current 2P reserves of Vali I got the below results.
However, we are expecting the reserve upgrades from both Vali and Odin in September. If the addition of the new reserve estimates increase current reserves by 2.5 times, VEN and MEL shares start to look very cheap!
I believe the coming reserve upgrades could be a catalyst for a re-rating of the share price for VEN! Especially if individual investors and funds are using these kinds of ratios to value VEN. I personally am not a fan of this valuation method because VEN's intrinsic value per share is much higher IMO because of the Nangwarry CO2 discovery and other existing permits. This ratio doesn't take any of these other great assets into account in the valuation. Anyway, I thought this might be of interest to others. When accounting for the companies existing gas assets in Vali & Odin, the Nangwarry 1 CO2 discovery, and the upcoming Cervantes drilling prospects and other permits, I still believe this company should be worth at least 20-30 cents per share.
Disclaimer: As I said, I have never used this ratio before so if I am incorrect with how I have used it I am happy to be corrected and learn something. I've made a lot of rough assumptions in this comparison such as applying the same oil, gas and LNG price to all companies which would effect the accuracy. I'm a holder of this stock and you should do your own research before investing.
Thanks and good luck!
(20min delay)